I think this is it! Here, I do the standard partioned RAD plot of loci favoring (panel A) vs disfavoring (panel C) loci, then a regression on the main distribution of trees in panel A (the other trees on panel A are not plausible). Overlaying the 95% prediction interval on the main part of the partitioned RAD analysis regression, no points are excluded except tree 122, which does not have anything obviously bad about it.
If there is a disproportionately supported tree (in terms of number of loci supporting it, as a function of the log likelihood), we'd expect it to fall outside the prediction interval on the upper side. We don't see any such.
Okay. This is how it goes into the paper! what I need now is simulated data to see how well this performs, but that will have to wait.
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